Morning Coffee: Are the Canadiens a legitimate Stanley Cup contender?

The 2025-26 NHL season didn’t hand us the most thrilling narratives on a platter prior to the Olympic break.

Instead, as many casual hockey fans wondered where all the juice had gone this season, the stage was quietly being set for a thrilling finish packed with a few surprises.

The San Jose Sharks beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-1 last night to climb into the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference with eight games remaining.

While 19-year-old phenom Macklin Celebrini has led their attack with some unprecedented numbers for a teenager, last night’s result marked only the second time he has not recorded a point in a San Jose win this season.

The Sharks improved to 2-15-3 when Celebrini doesn’t register a point.

Suddenly, San Jose has won four in a row to climb into a tie with the Nashville Predators and Los Angeles Kings for the final Wild Card spot with a game in hand.

Five points separate the Sharks in eighth from the St. Louis Blues in 13th place in the Western Conference standings heading into the final stretch.

In the Eastern Conference, the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, and Columbus Blue Jackets are all tied for the final Wild Card spot with 88 points.

The Philadelphia Flyers were two points back, while the Washington Capitals are three points back.

Four points separates the New York Islanders in third in the Metropolitan from Washington in 12th place in the Eastern Conference standings.

With the Senators beating the Sabres 4-1 in regulation last night, the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens both took an important step towards contending for an Atlantic Division title with regulation wins over the Pittsburgh Penguins and New York Rangers.

The top three teams in the Atlantic Division have gone a combined 21-5-4 over their last 10 games.

While everybody expected Tampa Bay to be in contention for a division title, nobody expected it would be Buffalo and Montreal fighting with them for first place.

The emergence of a dynamic young core has Habs fans believing that the Canadiens have what it takes to make a deep run in the Eastern Conference.

Is it a reach to label Montreal a legitimate Stanley Cup contender this season?

Maybe, but the Canadiens’ odds to reach the Stanley Cup Final have been on the move at FanDuel, and suddenly they have a chance to finish in first place in the Eastern Conference standings.

Let’s look at how dramatically the perception of the Habs has changed since the start of the season in this Morning Coffee column for Friday April 3rd, 2026.

Are The Canadiens A Legitimate Stanley Cup Contender?

Rewind back to the summer of 2025 when I gave out the Canadiens to make the playoffs at +156 as my best bet for the 2025-26 NHL season.

Montreal was 100-to-1 to win the Stanley Cup.

The Habs were considered more likely to make than miss the playoffs at FanDuel, never mind being mentioned in the same conversation as teams like the Florida Panthers, Toronto Maple Leafs, and even the New Jersey Devils.

Fast-forward 10 months later, the narrative has changed.

The Canadiens beat the New York Rangers 3-2 last night for their seventh straight win – the longest active streak in the NHL and the club’s longest streak since 2016.

Montreal is two points shy of hitting the century mark for the first time since the 2016-17 season.

The Habs are two points back of the Lightning and Sabres for first place in the Atlantic Division with seven games remaining, with a game in hand on Buffalo.

The Canadiens remain a long shot to win the Atlantic at +850 at FanDuel.

Tampa Bay is a -240 favourite, then Buffalo at +300.

After winning seven in a row to close the gap on the Lightning and Sabres, do the Habs have enough juice left to leapfrog them both for the Atlantic Division title?

Montreal and Buffalo won’t play again this season.

However, the Habs will host the Lightning next Thursday on the heels of a 4-1 win in Tampa Bay this past Tuesday.

At the very least, it will be important for Montreal to finish ahead of Buffalo and clinch home ice for a potential first round playoff series.

Looking ahead, the Canadiens to reach the Stanley Cup Final has gone from 31-to-1 in the pre-season to 15-to-1 as the fifth choice at FanDuel.

Interestingly, the Sabres and Senators both have shorter odds to reach the Stanley Cup Final than the Habs, along with the Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes.

Is Ottawa better suited to make a deep playoff run than Montreal?

Meanwhile, the Canadiens have gone from 100-to-1 to win the Stanley Cup before the season to 35-to-1.

That’s a significant move, but again it’s interesting that the Sabres, Senators, and Utah Mammoth are among the teams with shorter odds to win it all.

So, are the Habs a legitimate Stanley Cup contender?

According to TSN’s Director of Scouting Craig Button, Montreal must be considered a legitimate contender.

Cole Caufield is on the verge of his first 50-goal season.

After scoring an NHL-best 17 goals in 17 games since the Olympic break, Caufield is just one back of Nathan MacKinnon in the Rocket Richard Trophy race.

A 75-to-1 long shot before the season, Caufield is down to +160 to win the Rocket at FanDuel this morning.

In addition to one of the league’s best top forward lines in Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and Juraj Slafkovsky, the depth the Habs have assembled is beginning to shine.

Rookie Ivan Demidov has four goals and 13 points in 18 games since the Olympic break.

Alex Newhook is finally healthy again and he’s registered six goals and 11 points in 18 games since the break.

Meanwhile, Lane Hutson has recorded 15 points in his last 18 games to remain among the league leaders in points among defencemen.

Hutson is tied with Quinn Hughes for the fourth-most points among defencemen in the NHL with 73.

The biggest question mark for the Habs is goaltending.

That’s one area where the team has improved with the emergence of Jakub Dobes and arrival of Jacob Fowler.

Dobes has won five of his previous six starts, giving up two or fewer goals in all six starts.

He’s posted a 1.78 goals against average and a .942 save percentage dating back to March 3rd.

Meanwhile, Fowler is 8-5-2 with a 2.55 goals against average and a .904 save percentage.

The numbers don’t lie.

As of December 31st, Montreal ranked in the bottom 10 in the NHL with a 3.26 average goals per game allowed.

Since January 1st, the Habs rank in the top 10 in the NHL with a 2.89 average goals allowed per game.

With Dobes and the rookie Fowler, goaltending will remain a question mark for the Canadiens until that tandem proves it can hold up in the postseason.

However, it’s worth noting that like every other aspect of their game, Montreal’s goaltending has improved.

Is it enough to place a bet on the Habs to win the Stanley Cup at 35-to-1?

Maybe not.

However, 15-to-1 odds to reach the Stanley Cup Final seems like decent value for a club that has longer odds to win the Eastern Conference than Buffalo and Ottawa.

Heading into the final stretch, there’s plenty of excitement in Montreal and for good reason.

The Canadiens have gone from an afterthought in the Eastern Conference to a team that cannot be ignored.

Is this the start of something special in Montreal?

Five years after their last Stanley Cup Final appearance, Habs fans are starting to believe that this team can beat the odds and surprise the hockey world this spring.

Time will tell how far they go, but Montreal’s odds to make a deep postseason run are on the move at FanDuel.

Have a great weekend, everyone!